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The surge in Afghanistan
promote Afghan
The perils of keeping everybody happy
everyone satisfied with the risk
Dec 3rd 2009
From The Economist print edition
Barack Obama is doing the right thing in Afghanistan. But he is doing it in the wrong way
Obama doing in Afghanistan is correct, but the method is wrong.
MONTHS in the preparation, Barack Obama's speech outlining plans for his second commitment to the war is not open-ended, and that their soldiers will be coming home reasonably soon; and he had to convince the Taliban and other enemies that America is in the fight to win, even if that means the long haul. The danger , however, is that the time Mr Obama took to reach his decision and the qualifications with which he hedged its announcement will have the opposite effect. Weary Americans and allies will see merely a vague promise to start pulling troops out in 18 months' time, with no new ideas as to how to win the war first. Worse, the Taliban will see confirmation of what they have long believed, that America does not have the stomach to defeat a lengthy insurgency.
to Afghanistan on Obama second large-scale surge speech has been prepared for several months; speech to outline the U.S. military to promote the plan, but actions and the purpose is always self-contradictory; Obama will try to make every issue These two sound very harmonious. He must convince the American public and U.S. allies, that their commitment is not indefinite period of war, all soldiers will quickly within an acceptable time to return; while also recognize the Taliban and other enemies of the form: although it may is a tug of war, but the victory belongs to the United States. But Obama used to achieve the target time, and with some constraints to maintain the statement, the practices of (fulfilling the promise of standards) are counterproductive and dangerous for us. Concerns of Americans and allies only see a vague commitment - beginning in the next 18 months, withdrawal; but in terms of how they made the first victory was nothing new. To fuel the Taliban confirmed from the fact that they believe has long been the United States against long-term resistance not interested.
That is not to argue that Mr Obama's decision was wrong. On the contrary, in dispatching some 30,000 extra troops to Afghanistan in the first part of next year, going most of the way towards meeting the request for reinforcements by his commander there , General Stanley McChrystal, Mr Obama has done the right thing. His courage in doing so against the instincts of his own party, and his readiness to imperil his domestic agenda, should be commended. He has given General McChrystal the chance to achieve the first , crucial part of his strategy: to regain the initiative in a war that has been slipping inexorably into the enemy's hands.
This does not mean that Obama's decision is wrong; to send troops to Afghanistan early next year, 30,000 basic on top commander in Afghanistan, the United States to meet the General Mike Chris reinforcements required, this is precisely Obama made the right decision. He will not hesitate to defy their party and to disrupt the House agenda to make such a decision can be described as ambitious. Obama to General Mike Chris opportunity to achieve the first part of its strategy: to regain the hands of the enemy is already converted to the war initiative.
The problem lies not just in Mr Obama's long prevarication but in his presentation of the outcome. He spoke as a politician looking over his shoulder and seeking to satisfy every constituency, not as commander-in-chief focused single-mindedly on winning a bloody conflict (see article). On the one hand, he argued that the Either Afghanistan is indeed than expected, will bring a welcome momentum, but also the suspicion that it is intended to show results before the 2010 American mid-term election. And the drawdown is due to start just ahead of the next presidential campaign.
problem is not only Obama prolonged prevarication of the speech, but also (and) that the consequences of his expression. Obama speech, the feeling of caution, exactly like to please every voter for the purpose of the politicians; rather than one would like to win the brutal war of the commander in chief. On the one hand, Obama believes the safety of Americans in this war of maximum danger; on the other hand Lace Wigs, he (uncharacteristically in no hurry) reveals the mentality of troops eager for military spending to worry about. (Or the situation in Afghanistan as Obama claimed, was a Troops earlier than planned implementation of the program will be popular Short Length Wigs, but it was also suspected a move to the U.S. mid-term elections in 2010 have some effect. Withdrawal before the start of the next campaign will begin.
Nor has Mr Obama's painstaking deliberation come up with convincing solutions to the problems that dog each of the three parts of his strategy. Central to the first military component is the training and vast expansion of the Afghan security forces. Yet even the current , much more modest efforts to build up those forces are floundering. Pushtuns, members of the country's largest ethnic group, to which most insurgents belong, are loth to sign up. Desertion rates are high. The second component, a civilian and development strategy, relies on having a competent, legitimate Afghan government to work with. The one in office, led by Hamid Karzai, does not fit the bill, but no alternative is on offer. What is needed is concerted international pressure on Mr Karzai to accede to a constitutional rearrangement that decentralises power away from Kabul.
Obama by a three-part strategy now deeply troubled, but his painstaking thought and did not bring any constructive solutions. The first part comes from the military Wig Caps, the most central issue is the training of Afghan security forces and a large number of expansion, but only to establish a relatively modest force attempt, even so is still difficult. Pashtuns form the largest religious groups, while most of the rebels hold, but they do not want to be the employment contract. High percentage of desertion. The second component is related to the civilian population and development strategy, which depends on a competent and legitimate government of Afghanistan and the United States work together. Inauguration of Hamid Karzai is currently not the best candidate, but there are no other candidates to choose from. What is needed now is to coordinate international pressure on Karzai to accept the constitution reset, which will spread the right focus in Kabul.
AfPak backtrack
the war on terrorism going back
The third element, the notion that India, and hence disputed Kashmir, should be part of the mandate of Richard Holbrooke, Mr Obama's the real enemy, and the Taliban as a useful hedge against an India-leaning Afghanistan. The Pakistani army's impressive recent campaigns in the tribal areas have been directed at terrorists active in Pakistan, not those who cross the border to attack NATO in Afghanistan.
called the Obama team full of confidence in the region earlier this idealism soon be driven to the wall rock-solid reality. Obama to dispatch Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pajisitan Richard. Holbrooke, that India and Kashmir is full of disputes should be under his mandate, but India has succeeded in breaking this concept. For this reason, hoping the full cooperation of Pakistan's plan against the Taliban prospects. Too many Pakistani soldiers and spies are still regarded as the true enemy of India, while the Taliban in Afghanistan as a buffer against Indian control. Recently the Pakistani army in the tribal areas are active in hard-fought against terrorists in Pakistan, rather than across the border into Afghanistan to attack NATO forces in the enemy.
All these problems are fiendishly intractable. At least Mr Obama has identified them correctly, and understood their complexity. But this speech-perhaps the worst has the stamina to tackle them and, in his deceptively simple-sounding little phrase, to But Obama has a correct understanding of these issues and to fully understand the complexity. But the speech did not convince the opponents of force card, so that they believe Obama has the energy to solve these problems, by his very brief statement flicker effect is that the failure of his career best in a speech.